(Another in the continuing series of quotes to start the week.)
Today is Napoleon Bonaparte’s birthday (15 August 1769 – 5 May 1821), so you might expect that I would discuss a Napoleonic quote. I could — he has a plethora of quotes including a phrase I use rather a lot (“From the sublime to the ridiculous is but a step,” he said) — but Napoleon was kind of a jerk. Sure, he sold us Louisiana and a whole lot more, and he was a skilled military commander, but this week’s quote comes from the commander who bested him at Waterloo: the Duke of Wellington.
In addition to being a celebrated military leader in sixty different battles, Field Marshal Arthur Wellesley, the first Duke of Wellington (1 May 1769 – 14 September 1852), was a Member of Parliament and twice Prime Minister of Britain. I think one of his most interesting quotes is
All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavour to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called “guessing what was at the other side of the hill.”
What’s on the other side? (Image: “Hill,” by Henry Burrows, on Flickr under Creative Commons.)
I like that because so much of what we do, and so many decisions we make in our lives, are based on our guesses about conditions that we aren’t sure of — what’s on “the other side of the hill” — combined with our predictions of what will happen if we take this action or that. According to Theory of Knowledge, we test our guesses and predictions against experience and thereby prepare ourselves for the next decisions we must make, and the next, and so on.
So, whatever decisions you have to make and whatever unknowns you face, may all your guesses be accurate, your predictions sound, and your courage strong.
Have a great week!
___
P.S. As for the quote itself, I found it in a number of different places but the attribution seemed odd. It was twice dated 10 days before the Duke’s death, yet once it was referred to as being included in a book covering an earlier period of his life. That’s a bit of a mystery, but I still like the quote.
by 
Thanks for the kind words, Roy and Eli — I appreciate it very much.
Paul, I can’t gainsay your comment but I’m not sure what you mean by “false data.” Data may be erroneous, and may also be falsified (i.e., fake). Is the latter what you mean? Also, our conclusions based on data may be false, our perception of what is right in front of us may be false, and what is right in front of us may be false itself (e.g., falsified, illusory, imaginary). We must make judgments about what we perceive (the “chaos of the given,” to use C.I. Lewis’s term), form concepts and theories about it, and test them.
Mario, that Theory of Wisdom is interesting but a bit too mechanical for me. I prefer to think of wisdom as applied knowledge; or, if you will, knowledge applied. With respect to the Utility and Time elements in that ToW, however, you might be interested in this entry on decision-making: http://www.graymanwrites.com/blog/monday-morning-insight-decision-making-right-and-wrong-good-and-bad/.
Thanks again, everyone!
G
This may add to the discussion: Theory of Wisdom: http://porkopolis.blogspot.com/2014/05/a-theory-of-wisdom.html
And when we use false data to make our decisions in spite of what is right in front of us, that is not guessing what is on any hill, it’s self delusion.
Our leaders seem to favor that kind of thinking nowdays.
Great stuff Gray!
This is an excellent little meditation on life’s uncertainties. I think it’s important to remember that our decisions are based on “old data” that may or not be valid. Plus, the number of variables in any given situation are so large as to make every decision uncertain. Of course, we can’t let that get in our way–can we? So we muddle along, wondering what’s beyond that next hill, hoping for best, and to be our happiest we have to do our best with what we get.