Author Archives: Gray Rinehart

First International Space Flight, and a Precursor

By | |
Comments Off on First International Space Flight, and a Precursor

Thirty-five years ago today — March 2, 1978 — the Soyuz 28 mission launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome on a flight to the Salyut-6 space station. Soyuz 28 rates as the first space mission with an international crew by virtue of the fact that Soviet cosmonaut Alexei A. Gubarev was joined by Czech (i.e., of the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic) cosmonaut Vladimir Remek.

Ten years earlier — on March 2, 1968 — the USSR had launched the unmanned Zond 4 mission from Baikonur atop a Proton K. Previous Zond spacecraft had been planetary probes, but Zond 4 was designed as a manned capsule, though this test flight did not include occupants.


(Zond spacecraft atop Proton upper stage, in Baikonur assembly building. Image from Wikimedia Commons.)

The mission included a couple of interesting elements:

The trajectory away from the Moon was probably unintentional (although some claims were made that it was aimed away from the Moon to avoid complications of lunar gravity). The spacecraft supposedly could not be sent towards the Moon because of a malfunction in the attitude control system. On Earth, cosmonauts Popovich and Sevastyanov communicated from an isolated bunker with Yevpatoriya Flight Control Center in the Ukraine via a relay on board the spacecraft to simulate communications between cosmonauts in space and the ground controllers on Earth.

The Zond series of launches continued, but did not include any manned missions.

Sometimes it’s remarkable how short a time it took for manned spaceflight to become almost routine. But who knows how long it will be before it’s routine enough for the rest of us to enjoy?

Facebooktwitterpinterestlinkedinmailby feather

‘Shovel Ready’ Depends on What’s Being Shoveled

By | |
Comments Off on ‘Shovel Ready’ Depends on What’s Being Shoveled

Or, Why Improving Infrastructure Won’t Create a Whole Lot of Jobs.

The economic stimuli that Washington has tried in the last few years have included a number of construction programs; probably in your area, as in mine, a few project sites are marked as being the results of the Recovery Act. And in his press conference today, the President alluded to our country’s need for infrastructure repairs and intimated that, if we would only fund the needed repairs, we would see significant job growth and economic growth.

Road construction - 1921
(Road construction – 1921. OregonDOT image, from Flickr, under Creative Commons.)

Sorry, Mr. President, but it doesn’t work that way anymore.

In the old days, when huge teams of men were needed to clear trails, prepare roadbeds, pour concrete or spread asphalt, “shovel ready” meant just that: ready for lots of men with shovels to get started on the work. But when was the last time you saw a construction site full of men with actual shovels, doing the backbreaking work of building something big? Armies of men could be employed to complete such projects in the past, because manual labor was not only cheap and plentiful, it was also necessary.

Modern construction equipment has replaced the phalanxes of shovel-wielding workers, the number of people required to wield shovels on any job site is quite small, and no amount of increased spending on infrastructure is going to change that. In fact, it seems that the very people who propose that “shovel ready” might involve hiring huge numbers of the currently unemployed would howl at the thought of the conditions under which such people would have to work in order to match the output of a mechanized road crew.

Do many of our roads and bridges need to be repaired? Yes, and that has been true for as long as we’ve had roads and bridges. In many cases we have not done a good job of maintaining the infrastructure on which our economy depends. But we cannot expect investments in roads and bridges to lead directly to monumental gains in employment.

Nor can we expect investments in roads and bridges to lead directly to tremendous economic growth, but for a different reason. When roads and bridges were built to connect places that had until then been unconnected, allowing commerce between the places to develop, we saw great economic gains* — but repairing existing infrastructure cannot supply that same benefit. Especially in the U.S., most places are already connected that need to be connected. Unless the widened road, or the repaired bridge, or the expanded airport, or the upgraded rail line will actually reduce the time and cost of transporting people and goods, it’s unrealistic to expect any great economic benefit over and above the wages paid to the people who are doing the work.

And, as stated before, there won’t be as many of them as were needed in the past.

___

*One of the reasons the development of trains and railroads could be considered a great moment in manufacturing history, as I talked about in this video.

Facebooktwitterpinterestlinkedinmailby feather

My StellarCon Schedule

By | | ,
Comments Off on My StellarCon Schedule

StellarCon, an always-enjoyable student-run science fiction and fantasy convention, starts tomorrow in Greensboro.

I have the good fortune to be a guest, and my panel schedule is actually quite reasonable:

  • Friday, 9 p.m.: Reader Expectations and Stories – How do authors balance reader expectations and their work, and how should fans manage their own expectations?
  • Saturday, 11 a.m.: Editors – How Do They Work? – What do editors do and why are they necessary?
  • Saturday, 1 p.m.: Baen Traveling Roadshow – Find out what’s next from Baen Books, and maybe win a prize.
  • Saturday, 6 p.m.: Naming Names, Titling Titles – Discussion of our favorite and most memorable character names and book/story titles.
  • Sunday, 12 p.m.: Sex, Religion, Politics, and Aliens – The three subjects you’re never supposed to talk about and how to deal with them in genre fiction.

In addition to the usual panels, concerts, and general revelry, this year StellarCon reprises the Symposium On Nerdy Academic Research (SONAR), an honest-to-goodness academic conference — with scholarly presentations and everything! So there’s something for everyone at StellarCon, and I’m happy to be a part of it!

Facebooktwitterpinterestlinkedinmailby feather

Today is My Five-Year Blog-iversary

By | |
4 Comments

I started this blog five years ago today. I can’t remember why.

My first post* explained that the blog was basically “a new attempt at getting our warnings out to the world” (referencing my alter ego’s practice of warning of impending storms). I’ve done a little of that: warning about the metaphorical storms I see looming off the coastlines of our lives. Perhaps I’ve done less of that than I should, though I’m sure I’ve done more than some readers would prefer. C’est la vie.

I’ve had the most fun keeping up the space history series. I actually started that in late August 2008, so its five-year cycle is coming to a close. What should I do then?

Over the last five years, I’ve averaged a new post every 2-3 days. Sometimes it’s been burdensome, but for the most part I’ve been able to fit it into my routine. How worthwhile has it been? I’m not sure. As self-indulgent as it is, I can’t help but feel that it’s ultimately meaningless, and qualifies as what the Teacher called “chasing after the wind.”

But, a few folks have told me they enjoy it, and that’s enough. So, thanks for reading!

___

*All the old posts were moved from the original platform to WordPress earlier this month.

Facebooktwitterpinterestlinkedinmailby feather

Look at How Many of My Friends are on the Nebula Awards Ballot!

By | | ,
Comments Off on Look at How Many of My Friends are on the Nebula Awards Ballot!

Okay, some of them may be more like acquaintances, but it’s still kind of surreal that I know people who are in the running for the awards.

Nebula Award Logo

To explain: Last week the Science Fiction and Fantasy Writers of America announced the nominees for the 2012 Nebula Awards, as well as for the Ray Bradbury Award for Outstanding Dramatic Presentation and the Andre Norton Award for Young Adult Science Fiction and Fantasy. These are “industry” awards, in the same way that the Academy Awards are given within the movie industry, the Grammys within the music industry, etc. Among the nominees, I’ve marked my friends and acquaintances in bold:

Novel

  • Throne of the Crescent Moon, Saladin Ahmed (DAW; Gollancz ’13)
  • Ironskin, Tina Connolly (Tor)
  • The Killing Moon, N.K. Jemisin (Orbit US; Orbit UK)
  • The Drowning Girl, Caitlín R. Kiernan (Roc)
  • Glamour in Glass, Mary Robinette Kowal (Tor)
  • 2312, Kim Stanley Robinson (Orbit US; Orbit UK)

Novella

  • On a Red Station, Drifting, Aliette de Bodard (Immersion Press)
  • After the Fall, Before the Fall, During the Fall, Nancy Kress (Tachyon)
  • “The Stars Do Not Lie,” Jay Lake (Asimov’s 10-11/12)
  • “All the Flavors,” Ken Liu (GigaNotoSaurus 2/1/12)
  • “Katabasis,” Robert Reed (F&SF 11-12/12)
  • “Barry’s Tale,” Lawrence M. Schoen (Buffalito Buffet)

Novelette

  • “The Pyre of New Day,” Catherine Asaro (The Mammoth Books of SF Wars)
  • “Close Encounters,” Andy Duncan (The Pottawatomie Giant & Other Stories)
  • “The Waves,” Ken Liu (Asimov’s 12/12)
  • “The Finite Canvas,” Brit Mandelo (Tor.com 12/5/12)
  • “Swift, Brutal Retaliation,” Meghan McCarron (Tor.com 1/4/12)
  • “Portrait of Lisane da Patagnia,” Rachel Swirsky (Tor.com 8/22/12)
  • “Fade to White,” Catherynne M. Valente (Clarkesworld 8/12)

Short Story

  • “Robot,” Helena Bell (Clarkesworld 9/12)
  • “Immersion,” Aliette de Bodard (Clarkesworld 6/12)
  • “Fragmentation, or Ten Thousand Goodbyes,” Tom Crosshill (Clarkesworld 4/12)
  • “Nanny’s Day,” Leah Cypess (Asimov’s 3/12)
  • “Give Her Honey When You Hear Her Scream,” Maria Dahvana Headley (Lightspeed 7/12)
  • “The Bookmaking Habits of Select Species,” Ken Liu (Lightspeed 8/12)
  • “Five Ways to Fall in Love on Planet Porcelain,” Cat Rambo (Near + Far)

Ray Bradbury Award for Outstanding Dramatic Presentation

  • The Avengers, Joss Whedon (director) and Joss Whedon and Zak Penn (writers), (Marvel/Disney)
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild, Benh Zeitlin (director), Benh Zeitlin and Lucy Abilar (writers), (Journeyman/Cinereach/Court 13/Fox Searchlight )
  • The Cabin in the Woods, Drew Goddard (director), Joss Whedon and Drew Goddard (writers) (Mutant Enemy/Lionsgate)
  • The Hunger Games, Gary Ross (director), Gary Ross, Suzanne Collins, and Billy Ray writers), (Lionsgate)
  • John Carter, Andrew Stanton (director), Michael Chabon, Mark Andrews, and Andrew Stanton (writers), (Disney)
  • Looper, Rian Johnson (director), Rian Johnson (writer), (FilmDistrict/TriStar)

(Yeah, I don’t know any of those folks … although I do share a birthday with one of the writer/director types.)

Andre Norton Award for Young Adult Science Fiction and Fantasy

  • Iron Hearted Violet, Kelly Barnhill (Little, Brown)
  • Black Heart, Holly Black (S&S/McElderry; Gollancz)
  • Above, Leah Bobet (Levine)
  • The Diviners, Libba Bray (Little, Brown; Atom)
  • Vessel, Sarah Beth Durst (S&S/McElderry)
  • Seraphina, Rachel Hartman (Random House; Doubleday UK)
  • Enchanted, Alethea Kontis (Harcourt)
  • Every Day, David Levithan (Alice A. Knopf Books for Young Readers)
  • Summer of the Mariposas, Guadalupe Garcia McCall (Tu Books)
  • Railsea, China Miéville (Del Rey; Macmillan)
  • Fair Coin, E.C. Myers (Pyr)
  • Above World, Jenn Reese (Candlewick)

You can find links to some of the stories referenced above, available to read for free, in this SF Signal post.

Now I just need to decide for whom I wish to vote.

I’m pretty sure I can’t make it to the awards ceremony, which will be in mid-May in San Jose. If you’re interested — and you don’t have to be a member of SFWA to attend — you can find more information about the Nebula Awards Weekend at http://www.sfwa.org/nebula-awards/nebula-weekend/.

Facebooktwitterpinterestlinkedinmailby feather

Pegasus Carries Student Satellite to Orbit

By | |
Comments Off on Pegasus Carries Student Satellite to Orbit

Fifteen years ago today — February 25, 1998 — a Pegasus XL rocket launched a student-built satellite to track variations in nitric oxide pollutants in the atmosphere.


(Student Nitric Oxide Explorer integrated on the Pegasus launch vehicle. University of Colorado LASP image.)

The Student Nitric Oxide Explorer (SNOE) was built by University of Colorado students, under a program managed by the Universities Space Research Association.

Flying out of Vandenberg AFB, the Pegasus XL was dropped from its L-1011 carrier aircraft and propelled SNOE and the Broadband Advanced Technology Satellite (also known as BATSAT and later as Teledesic 1) into orbit.

The SNOE mission lasted nearly 6 years; the satellite de-orbited in December 2003. You can learn more about SNOE at this University of Colorado Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics page .

Facebooktwitterpinterestlinkedinmailby feather

Japanese X-Ray Telescope, and a Satellite’s Destruction

By | | ,
Comments Off on Japanese X-Ray Telescope, and a Satellite’s Destruction

Twenty years ago today — February 20, 1993 — Japan launched the Asuka x-ray observatory from Uchinoura Space Center atop an M-3SII rocket.


(Representation of Asuka satellite. JAXA image.)

Asuka, also known as ASTRO-D before launch and ASCA afterward, was a joint mission in which NASA and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology both provided spacecraft components in exchange for observation time with the orbiting telescope. The spacecraft operated normally for over seven years; however,

A solar flare on 14 July 2000 caused heating and expansion of the upper atmosphere, which increased the drag and external torque on ASCA. The attitude was perturbed, so the solar panels lost lock on the Sun, resulting in discharge of the batteries. ASCA reentered the atmosphere on March 2, 2001.

This date in space history is also marked by another satellite’s destruction, but this time it was deliberate: 5 years ago today, the guided-missile-cruiser USS Lake Erie launched a missile to intercept a disabled reconnaissance satellite. You can read contemporary news reports at Spy Satellite’s Downing Shows a New U.S. Weapon Capability and Navy says missile smashed wayward satellite.

Facebooktwitterpinterestlinkedinmailby feather

Are We Missing the Point on Artificial Intelligence?

By | |
Comments Off on Are We Missing the Point on Artificial Intelligence?

Read an interesting article yesterday about Duke University neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis, who takes issue with science fiction author Vernor Vinge and futurist Ray Kurzweil’s famous Singularity: that point at which computer intelligence emerges and outstrips human intelligence, which has been a staple of science fiction for years.

Robot
(“Robot,” by ewen and donabel, from Flickr under Creative Commons.)

The viewpoint article, “The Brain is Not Computable”, introduces Nicolelis and his new book on the brain and human thought. As opposed to Kurzweil, et al, who foresee artificial intelligence being developed in the next few decades as computers grow ever more powerful, Nicolelis posits that the functions of the human brain — including random and unpredictable interactions among its myriad neurons — will not be replicated inside a machine.

That reminded me of a conversation I had during a panel discussion at a science fiction and fantasy convention many years ago,* in which I expressed my own doubts about artificial intelligence. I’m dubious of its appearance any time soon, not from the perspective of computer science but from that of Theory of Knowledge.

Specifically, the emergence of true AI would seem to require the computer (or network of computers) to transcend its own programming. We have seen tremendous performances by machines as repositories of quickly-accessible data — the “Watson” computer that competed so well at Jeopardy! was such a machine, capable of parsing the answer and finding the components of the most likely question. But as I understand it, Watson was still following instructions: still performing tasks it had been programmed to perform.

I contend that machines such as Watson are at the lowest end of what I think of as the chain of intelligence: Data are interpreted into Knowledge, and Knowledge is applied and refined into Wisdom.

A true AI — or, if you will, an intelligent artifice — will have to be much more than a sophisticated data-mining tool. For it to adhere to Theory of Knowledge, it will have to be able to form concepts based on the data presented to it; to convey knowledge those concepts will have to be predictive in nature, and the artifice will have to test those predictions against reality and, if needed, modify and continue to test them. Once it can rely on the accuracy of its predictions enough to carry out independent,** routine tasks without recourse to intervention by its programmers, we might consider it intelligent — but as its intelligence is tried in the fire of reality, will that artifice develop anything approaching wisdom?

Will such a device — artificial, independent, and intelligent — be developed in our lifetimes, and will it approach (let alone surpass) the functions of the human brain? I’m aware of the danger of saying anything will never happen, so I won’t say no … but I doubt it.

The cyberneticists are welcome to prove me wrong.

___
*TriNoCon, perhaps? NASFiC? I don’t remember … and that bothers me.
**Which brings up another thorny issue with respect to any artifice: from whence shall it develop the will to act independently?

Facebooktwitterpinterestlinkedinmailby feather

Galleys for Asimov’s, Nebula Nominations, and MystiCon Schedule

By | |
2 Comments

Nothing like news of a meteor strike to put the day in perspective, eh? No matter how busy you are today, or what you happen to be going through, I hope you can take some time to enjoy yourself … but keep watching the skies!

As for me, today I need to review the galleys for my novelette, “What is a Warrior Without His Wounds?” and send any changes back to the good folks at Asimov’s Science Fiction. The story is scheduled to appear in their July issue. (As an aside, I’m thinking of donating my payment for the story to the Wounded Warrior Project. Do you think that would be appropriate?)

Asimov's Science Fiction

 

Today is also the LAST DAY to nominate for the Nebula Awards, so I need to do that, too. Over the past few weeks I’ve read a LOT of terrific short fiction, which makes it hard to decide what to nominate. Guess I’d better get to it.

Nebula Award Logo

 

Finally, in the “upcoming events” category, next week I’ll be at MystiCon in Roanoke, Virginia, where I will play a concert (yes, really), moderate some panels, and generally make a nuisance of myself. My schedule looks like this:

Friday, 22 February

  • 5 p.m., A Musical Hour with Gray Rinehart
  • 6 p.m., Writing Space Battles (I’m moderating this panel)
  • 10 p.m., Koffee Klatch … Reading with Peter Prellwitz

Saturday, 23 February

  • 1 p.m., Grasping for the Stars (moderator)
  • 2 p.m., How Military Technology is Catching Up with Military SF Tech (again, moderator)
  • 4 p.m., The Baen Traveling Road Show
  • 8 p.m., Remembering Uncle Orson’s Literary Boot Camp

Sunday, 24 February

  • 9 a.m., Worship Service
  • 12 p.m., No Shirt, No Shoes, No Entry — Business Etiquette

So, as long as we don’t get smashed by rocks falling from space, it should be a good time!

Facebooktwitterpinterestlinkedinmailby feather

Testing Arthur C. Clarke’s Satellite Idea: Syncom 1

By | |
Comments Off on Testing Arthur C. Clarke’s Satellite Idea: Syncom 1

The blessing of Saint Valentine be upon you and yours! Now, on to space history …

Fifty years ago today — February 14, 1963 — a Thor Delta rocket out of Cape Canaveral launched Syncom 1, the first attempt to test Arthur C. Clarke’s idea about global communications from synchronous orbit.

Syncom 1. NASA image.

(Syncom 1. NASA image.)

 

Syncom 1 (short for “synchronous communications”) was intended to go into the 24-hour orbit proposed by Clarke to be used for relay satellites. It was expected to have an approximately 30-degree orbital inclination, and initial contact with the satellite was made while it was in its initial elliptical orbit; however,

About 5 hours after launch the apogee motor was commanded to fire to place the satellite into a near-synchronous orbit. At about the time the motor completed its 20 second burn all contact was lost. NASA officials assumed that “the satellite’s spin axis was misaligned at the time of the apogee motor firing. Because of this they have been unable to determine whether the satellite is damaged.” Attempts were made to communicate with the spacecraft but contact was never re-established.

The first truly geosynchronous communications tests would have to wait a few more months.

Facebooktwitterpinterestlinkedinmailby feather