Challenger Launch, 25 Years Ago

Twenty-five years ago today — April 6, 1984 — the Space Shuttle Challenger launched from the Kennedy Space Center on mission STS-41C. , 8:58 a.m., EST, KSC. Astronauts Robert L. Crippen, Francis R. Scobee, Terry J. Hart, George D. Nelson, and James Van Hoften launched the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF)-1 launched and performed the first in-orbit spacecraft repair on the Solar Max satellite.


(NASA image of STS-41C launch.)

[BREAK, BREAK]

The past few days, I’ve seen a lot of space-related news stories — the North Korean launch failure, the possibility that Congress might start letting U.S. companies sell militarily critical space technology, etc. — so I posted some of them in the Space Warfare Forum for anyone who might be interested.

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50 Years Ago: The Dawn of Project Mercury

Project Mercury was announced in 1958, but 50 years ago this month the astronauts were selected and presented to the public. I found two different selection dates — April 1st, according to this NASA page about the 40th anniversary, and April 2nd, according to this NASA list of anniversaries.*


(NASA publicity photo of the Mercury Seven)

All sources agree that the “Mercury Seven” astronauts were announced at a NASA press conference on April 9, 1959. They were Scott Carpenter, L. Gordon Cooper, Jr., John H. Glenn, Jr., Virgil I. “Gus” Grissom, Walter M. Schirra, Jr., Alan B. Shepard, Jr., and Donald K. “Deke” Slayton.

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*From which I get the space anniversaries I want to highlight here on the blog.

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Catching Up From a Busy Weekend, and a Near-Disaster Revealed

I missed two space anniversaries this weekend, because I spent most of the time finishing a short story and most of the rest of the time either at church or preparing for the worship services. (Excuses, excuses.)

First, the space anniversaries I missed:

– Ten years ago Saturday — March 28, 1999 — Sea Launch launched their “DemoSat,” essentially a ballast-filled “dummy” spacecraft, from the Odyssey launch platform, a converted North Sea oil drilling platform. I had the pleasure of sailing on the Odyssey three years later for the launch of the Galaxy III-C spacecraft.

– Thirty-five years ago yesterday — March 29, 1974 — Mariner 10 made the first flyby of Mercury.

As for the near-disaster, Spaceflight Now ran a CBS News story Friday in which Robert “Hoot” Gibson recalled details of the damage sustained by the shuttle Atlantis on mission STS-27, which launched on December 2, 1988. The shuttle received more damage than on any other mission, and the crew worried that they might not survive re-entry. It’s a frightening story of miscommunication: the classified military mission was conducted under a communications blackout, so when the crew sent video of the damaged areas the encryption degraded the images so much that NASA engineers didn’t believe there was a real problem.

I checked into the mission a little more, and when I saw the mission patch this story became even more compelling to me. I didn’t realize it when I posted the space anniversary of the launch, but when Atlantis landed at Edwards AFB I was on duty as part of the AF Flight Test Center recovery team. We, of course, knew nothing about the damaged tiles or how close that shuttle came to not making it back at all.

(STS-27 mission patch. Click to enlarge.)

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Did General Cartwright Mean What He Said?

According to Reuters, he said the words, but I wonder if he thought through what the words implied.

General James “Hoss” Cartwright, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was discussing the need to make “hard choices” with respect to funding different weapons systems when he said:

“Would you buy, in tough economic times, something that does one thing well or something that does a hundred things well?”

(The article is here.)

My first reaction to that statement was, to use the vernacular, DUH. Then I thought about it some more and wondered why the economic situation would matter to that decision: the statement seems to imply that the costs of the two “something”s are the same, so of course any fool would buy the one that does 99 more (extra?) things well.

But General Cartwright should know that no complex system that does 100 things well is going to cost the same as something that does only 1 thing well. In truly austere times, it may be necessary to forego most of those 99 extra features in order to afford the 1 feature that matters.

But I’m surprised that he would even imply that it’s possible to build a system that can do a large number (100 was surely hyperbole) of things as well as specialized systems. Trade-offs have to be made, and some amount of performance has to be sacrificed, to add bells and whistles — let alone to add real capabilities. It’s more likely that we would give up the 1 thing done very well to get 10 things done moderately well. That may end up being a real bargain, and he’s right that deciding on the 10 things out of the 100 possible things will involve difficult choices, but the real issue is whether the end result will be adequate to accomplish the mission.

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Today in Space History: Shuttle Delivery

Thirty years ago today — March 24, 1979 — the Space Shuttle Columbia was transported to Kennedy Space Center, marking the first time a shuttle was delivered to the launch base. It was carried atop a modified Boeing 747 as shown in the attached image.*

(NASA Photo EC01-0055-1. Click to enlarge.)

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*The image is of a later flight, in March 2001.

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The World Owes Me Nothing

Not too long ago I had a brief conversation on Twitter* about whether the world owes us anything. I say, the world owes me nothing.

I’ve heard people say, “I didn’t ask to be born,” and proceed to demand recompense from the world.

I say, the world didn’t ask for any of us to be born. We owe something for what we have, and get.

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*See http://twitter.com/GrayRinehart.

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Bonus Entry on Taxes: Guest Post on Withholding

My series on taxes officially ended yesterday, but here’s a bonus entry submitted via e-mail by my college buddy David O’Nan:

Personally, although tax changes are needed badly, the first action that should be taken is to do away with withholding. Make every taxpayer pay a check to the government every month for taxes and another check for their FICA/etc (and quit allowing them to move surpluses from one to the other to hide their spending). It’s so “hidden” now that most only have general ideas and don’t feel the pain the same way they would if they consciously had to pay the taxes. And any changes are similarly “hidden.” If every time they made a change in taxes you had to change the amount you paid (up or down), everyone will know exactly the difference rather than relying on pundits and wonks and people with agendas to tell them a slanted view of the impact.

People will start to think twice about what they expect government to fix when they get slapped upside the head with the tax bill the first few times. Once that object lesson is learned, then you could make better headway in addressing some of the ridiculous stuff that doesn’t raise widespread ire because the consequences are out there in the ether somewhere.

In a separate e-mail, he wrote,

It would be a fun idea to implement, but even if someone has direct-deposit and banks online, they still get to see the impact on every bank statement (paper or online). Every taxpayer already has a taxpayer ID number so it can’t be any more difficult to track than tax returns. Have them pay their tax within a month of the paycheck (more than one paycheck a month, more than one tax payment and FICA payment a month).

I don’t know about having to write so many checks based on how many paychecks you get — for those of us with multiple jobs, that would be a real pain. But I do know that my tax burden became much more real when I started paying estimated taxes, since part of my income has no withholding and my income fluctuates from time to time. So with respect to making it more obvious just how much everyone is paying in taxes, David is certainly on to something.

Thanks, David, for sending that in and letting me post it!

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The GrayMan Writes About Taxes: Phased-in Business Tax

Before I forget: Happy Vernal Equinox, everyone!

And now, on to today’s tax topic:

States and municipalities often vie against one another to offer tax breaks to businesses moving into an area, but not so often to new businesses that are too small or too local.

Most new businesses fail within the first couple of years.

Those two situations together form a nice nexus of opportunity, in which new businesses that do not qualify for other tax incentives could be spared the full brunt of corporate taxation when they are most vulnerable.

We could choose whatever phase-in period was appropriate, but for the sake of argument let’s assume a four-year phase-in. In that case, a business’s corporate tax would be multiplied by x/4, where x is the number of years since the business started. The first year’s taxes would be 25% of normal, the next 50%, the third year’s 75%, and only in the fourth year and thereafter would the business have to pay their full tax. By reducing the tax burden on new businesses, it would give them more money to spend on stabilizing their businesses and making them successful.

Other adjustments could be added based on the size of the business, giving bigger breaks in the early years to businesses with more employees, or possibly based on the type of business. For example, a small manufacturer making a product important to national security might operate on a longer adjustment schedule.

How many businesses that would otherwise fail would succeed under this arrangement? We have no way of knowing. And perhaps it would be counter-productive, in that the businesses that would fail anyway might be better off failing sooner rather than later. But small- and medium-sized businesses are vital to the overall stability and health of our economy, so it seems prudent to give them the best possible chance to succeed.

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This proposal may be a nice adjunct to the Business Activity Tax Simplification Act favored by the National Taxpayers’ Union. That act makes it clear that cities, counties, and states may only levy business taxes on companies whose employees or property are actually within their jurisdiction. Read about the act here.

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The GrayMan Writes About Taxes: Fractional Reserve Excessive Risk

Let me admit right up front that I don’t know all there is to know about fractional reserve banking. My degrees are in engineering and management, which seem to be less arcane fields than finance and banking.

Here’s what I understand, and my four regular readers or any curious visitors are welcome to correct me: fractional reserve banking allows a bank to hold a certain amount of money on deposit and lend a higher amount — i.e., lend more than they actually have on hand — charging more interest for the loan than they pay on the deposit, on the theory that the depositors will not claim their money all at once (make a “run on the bank”). As long as the depositors play along, they are safe in having the assets on their balance sheet consist mostly of accounts receivable.

Got it? You put a hundred dollars on deposit at the bank, to keep your money “safe” and receive your miniscule interest payment. If the bank is operating on a 10% reserve, they loan out ninety dollars, charging a higher rate of interest and noting the loan as an account receivable: an asset. The bank has $10 on hand, not $100, but your $100 is listed as a deposit and that $90 loan is an account receivable.

That ninety dollars is spent on something and the money is deposited in another bank or even your original bank. Then, on the basis of that ninety dollar deposit, the bank can loan out eighty-one dollars, which they again note as an asset while keeping only 10% in reserve. As banks repeat this process, they “create” money (and wealth); by the time they’re done, your $100 deposit has become close to $1000 in loans. But the banks hold only a fraction of their money on deposit; hence, they operate on a fractional reserve. (You can read more on this Wikipedia page.)

As I see it, part of the economic crisis we’re in — with the subprime mortgages and derivatives and all the other arcane manipulations of money, which (if I recall correctly) James Fallows referred to a long time ago in the Atlantic Monthly as “paper entrepreneurialism” — was started by banks and other lending institutions accepting far more “receivable” assets while holding far fewer assets in reserve. That is, they took excessive risk by exceeding a reasonable ratio of loans to deposits.

(If that doesn’t make any sense, take a look at this fairly long cartoon video that presents an intriguing look at the fractional reserve system and how it contributes to our mounting debt: “Money as Debt.”)

What does this have to do with taxes?

It seems there should be some way to penalize banks and other lending institutions that take excessive risk, and to do so in proportion to the risk they rake. If the “safe” ratio of loans to deposits is 9:1 — arguments could be made that some other ratio is better — then it seems the further they get from that ratio the more they should pay. Originally, I envisioned this penalty as coming in the form of an “excessive risk tax:” the idea being that an institution operating imprudently such that it may fail (leaving its depositors to collect deposit insurance), or that it may come to the government to be “bailed out” of a situation they could have prevented, should pay more into the government to cover that cost.

Unfortunately, that’s not a good idea: it would place a greater financial burden on an institution that is already operating on shaky ground. And I oppose enacting a regulation or law that would mandate any certain fractional reserve limit — risk taking is not the evil that some people, particularly those who want to protect everyone from everything, seem to think it is.

So what I propose is this: as part of a lending institution’s annual tax preparation, they should state how far they are from the “safe” fractional reserve level — and should do so in the clearest possible way, by providing a simple run chart covering at least the most recent ten years, showing the ideal and their distance from it. Those who show a consistent disregard for prudence would thereby be flagged for extra scrutiny of their books. In addition, the institutions should, as part of their adherence to the Federal Truth in Lending statutes and F.D.I.C. requirements, post that chart for all to see so that every consumer can decide if they want to choose a lender — or a bank — based on their stability as well as whatever interest rate they offer.

If the banks had to disclose how much risk they were taking as well as what return they offered, consumers would be able to choose where to put their money. That’s a reform with real benefit to regular people.

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The GrayMan Writes About Taxes: Corporate Returns and Reports

If you haven’t read The Cheating Culture by David Callahan, I recommend it. It’s disturbing, and I don’t think I absorbed all of its implications, but it’s an important book. I bring it up because it catalogued many examples of corporate cheating — cheating their customers, cheating their stockholders, and cheating the government.

Let me say first of all that I believe the U.S. corporate tax rate is too high, and acts as an incentive for companies to move out of the U.S. to friendlier places. Unfortunately, I don’t see any signs of it coming down under the current Administration and current Congress, because the loudest voices in the public sector seem to cry out in favor of punishing private sector success instead of making more success possible. I fear for the long-term effects.

That said, I don’t believe elevated tax rates justify the kinds of corporate cheating that Callahan wrote about. And one of the potential cheating tactics that seems possible to confront is the practice of reporting earnings on tax returns that differ from earnings reported in annual reports to stockholders.

Until the recent economic and financial turmoil, many companies posted profits every quarter even if it took some creative accounting to record those profits. Some of those companies got caught cooking the books, but usually not until they had collapsed or were close to collapse. They got into this habit in order to satisfy public perception and stockholders’ expectations, because no one wanted to mention the Emperor’s nakedness in terms of how unrealistic those expectations were. I understand that some of those companies that reported near-constant growth and profits in their annual reports, however, somehow produced lower earnings or even losses when it came to filing their taxes.

It doesn’t seem right for companies to tell their stockholders something different than they tell the government, especially if they’re telling their stockholders they made a profit in order to boost their share price, and then telling the government they took a loss in order to avoid paying taxes. Some might argue that this practice is only the difference between preliminary and final numbers, i.e., that it’s just a matter of “corrections” — I understand about honest mistakes, but it seems to me that either their accounting is good at the time it’s done, or it’s not good at all. If there are questions, resolve them before you issue the report with your name on it.

How can this influence tax policy? Let companies file their annual report as their tax return. Or, if that puts too much onus on the IRS to figure out any tax liability, let them submit the annual report along with their tax documents and show that the two match. If they don’t agree, or they differ more than some small allowance, assess a penalty based on the difference. (This would be irrespective of the company’s actual performance, and only related to what the company reported.)

In other words, split the difference between the return and the report, since we apparently can’t have complete faith in either one.

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For those who are interested, The Cheating Culture has its own website at http://www.cheatingculture.com/.

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